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PED’s Review of the North Carolina Guaranteed
Admissions Program (NCGAP) Report (April 2016)
Summary
Session Law 2015-241 established NCGAP, a deferred admissions program for postsecondary students identified as academically at risk. In January 2016, JLPEOC directed PED to assess the methodology and accuracy of conclusions presented in a legislatively mandated report submitted by the UNC Board of Governors and the State Board of Community Colleges on potential program impacts of NCGAP. PED’s review of the NCGAP report found several shortcomings and concluded it may understate community college cohort six-year graduation rates; used flawed measures of intent to attend a university in its sample selection process; excluded important variables in its regression model; failed to consider recent efforts to increase the success of transfer students; understated potential savings to students; may not adequately measure all student debt; estimated decreases in enrollment at UNC institutions without recognizing simultaneous increases in community college enrollment and degree production; and failed to support its estimate of “tens of millions of dollars” being necessary to advise NCGAP-participating students. |
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